Extension of OGRE Model (2015 - present)
Small Open Economy version of OGRE: Calibrated to Lithuania
with Zsuzsa Munkácsi and Mihnea Constantinescu
We extend OGRE, the overlapping generation model developed by Baksa and Munkacsi (2016) by adding openness. We then employ the model to explore how the macroeconomic effects of aging, assumed to manifest itself as a decrease in the mortality rate, can be counteracted through public policies. The extended version inherits the previous modeling features of OGRE allowing us to also account for the impact openness has on the effectiveness of the considered policies.
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JEL codes: E24, E26, F41, H55, J11, J46
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reforms: Project of ECB Working Group of Public Finance, OGRE Calibrated to Several Eurozone countries
with Henrique Basso, Mihnea Constantinescu, João Domingues Semeano, Pascal Jacquinot, Zsuzsa Munkácsi, Carolin Nerlich and Lara Wemans (forthcoming)
Pension reforms in Spain: Spain version of OGRE, Spanish Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility
with J. Castellanos Silvan, C. Cuerpo Caballero, E. Martín Quilis, and A. Pastor Escribano (forthcoming)
A framework for assessing the costs of pension reform reversals
with Zsuzsa Munkácsi and Carolin Nerlich
Several European countries are currently considering reversing parts of their pension reforms that were adopted previously to improve sustainability. In this paper we present a framework that allows us to quantify the macroeconomic and fiscal costs of such reversals. We thereby integrate the country-specific information from the latest Ageing Report into a dynamic general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Focusing on Germany and Slovakia as country cases, our model replicates the Ageing Report’s pension expenditure projections very well. We calculate the macroeconomic impact of first the additional pension reforms needed to contain the public debt pressures arising from population ageing and second the costs of reform reversals. Our model results show that undoing past pension reforms would generate substantial adverse macroeconomic costs and could pose challenges for fiscal sustainability.
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JEL codes:H55, J11, J26
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Mongolia, Macro-FiscaL Model (2016 - 2017)
Natural Resource Governance Institute and
Fiscal Responsibility Institute Budapest
Mongolia has experienced a series of economic booms and busts over the last decade, driven mainly by commodity swings but aggravated by excessive borrowing during boom times. Only few years after a balance of payment crises culminating in an IMF bailout in 2009, the prospects of massive revenues from giant copper and coal investments fueled a new spending spree. Between 2011 and 2016, government salaries, infrastructure costs and cash transfers spiraled. But when commodity prices fell again, the country was left facing renewed short-term financial pressures amid growing public debt. The government recently returned to the IMF to negotiate another bailout agreement.
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The opportunities and challenges created by the mining sector highlight the need for careful planning and a solid policy framework that promotes economic sustainability. The Mongolian government took multiple important steps in this direction. In 2010, Mongolia’s parliament adopted a set of fiscal rules as part of the Fiscal Stability Law setting ceilings on expenditure growth, structural budget deficits and on the stock of government debt. In 2017, the government is establishing a new sovereign wealth fund, the Future Heritage Fund, to accumulate a proportion of natural resource revenues for future generations.
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But are these rules meeting their objectives? With NRGI and FRIB analysts I have built a Mongolian macro-fiscal model in order to monitor progress and analyze challenges. I was responsible for the semi-structural macroeconomic model development and its implementation into Excel framework.
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Macroeconomic Model developments (2011 - 2018)
Fiscal Responsibility Institute Budapest
I have participated in several macroeconomic model development and created several projections for the Fiscal Responsibility Institute Budapest. The model based projections and scenarios were the basic input for budgetary calculations.
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Hungarian and English website of the institute consist some of our common project.
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Macroeconomic Model developments (2011 - 2013)
Magyar Nemzeti Bank/Central Bank of Hungary
I have participated in several macroeconomic model development and created several projections at the Central Bank of Hungary. Our Monetary Policy Model (MPM) was the key forecasting model between 2011 and 2014.
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Working paper about the model description
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Our model was a key tool in the central bank policy advise. It was also used to estimate the natural interest rate of Hungary.
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Find the discussion paper here
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Macroeconomic Model developments (2009 - 2010)
Office of the Fiscal Council
One of my first projects at the Office of the Fiscal Council with Zoltán Jakab and Szilárd Benk was the development of a medium-scaled, small open economy model, the fiscal-DSGE-model for Hungary. This model was the basic tool of the projection and scenario analysis.
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The description of the model was published in Sigma in 2014 in Hungarian
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